In November the basketball teams at
Arizona,
Kentucky,
Louisville,
Maryland and
Syracuse were consensus preseason
Top 25 choices.
Come March 12, we could be scouring
the brackets to project where some of those teams could be hooking up – in the
National Invitation Tournament.
Yeah – hard to believe,
eh?
With a little more than two weeks
to go in the regular season, plus the conference tournaments, there is still
more than enough time – except, in reality, for
Louisville – to pump up the resumes
for some of those 34 at-large bids that will be doled out for the NCAA
Tournament.
Those who can’t get that
accomplished – and/or can’t win their conference tournaments – will be welcomed
by the open and loving arms of the new-look NIT (owned and operated by the
NCAA).
Do you think the powers-that-be
would like their chances of seeing a lot of humanity in Madison Square Garden
seats with a semifinal field of, say, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland and
Syracuse?
Here is a quick glance at what each
of those five teams has to do in order to avoid becoming a part of that “Dream”
NIT “Final Four” scenario – short of losing NIT games before getting to
New York City, that is:
ARIZONA (15-10 overall and 8-6 Pac
10)
Remaining games: at Stanford; vs. Arizona State, Washington State and
Washington.
NCAA RPI (as of Feb. 13):
20.
WHY THEY ARE IN THIS PREDICIMENT: Many
observers (including this one) overestimated the Wildcats’ ability to compensate
for the loss of two of the best players in the country last season (Channing Frye and Salim Stoudamire). Lute Olson hasn’t received nearly the
same level of backcourt play that he’s come to expect almost every season. The
loss of sophomore Jawann McClellan
(first to ineligibility then to a broken wrist) robbed the roster of what would
have been the team’s most dependable perimeter scorer.
HOW DIRE ARE THE STRAITS? Not as bad as
the others on this list. A win at Stanford Sunday would remove all doubt – but
the Cardinal is a team fighting for its at-large life and, some will tell you,
should have beaten the Wildcats when the teams met in Tucson (when Arizona
prevailed in overtime). With such a strong RPI (thanks, in large part, to the
program’s tough-as-usual non-conference slate), the Wildcats could lose Sunday
but still get an at-large bid – minus any Pac 10 tourney heroics – with two wins
in their final three games in Tucson.
NCAA or NIT? NCAA, stretching the
Wildcats’ streak to 22 in a row.
KENTUCKY (16-9 overall and 6-5
SEC)
Remaining games: at
South Carolina; vs.
Mississippi; at LSU and
Tennessee; vs.
Florida.
NCAA RPI (as of Feb. 13):
44.
WHY THEY ARE IN THIS PREDICIMENT: There
just isn’t as much “talent” in Lexington now as there used to be or is in the
other “elite” programs (Duke, Connecticut and Kansas, to name three) or even
within the SEC (Florida and LSU) at the present. There is only one player who
interests the NBA (sophomore point guard Rajon Rondo) – and he is shooting 23
percent on 3’s and 58 percent from the free-throw line.
HOW DIRE ARE THE STRAITS? It’s nervous
time in Big Blue Country. The team has just one victory (against
West Virginia) over a team that
will definitely be in the NCAA Tournament and that took place almost three
months ago in Kansas City. But,
barring a slipup against South
Carolina or
Mississippi, one victory in the
final three games against better SEC teams (LSU,
Tennessee and
Florida) than they are – and no
early exit in the SEC tourney – should have them breathing a lot easier in
Lexington.
NCAA or NIT? There isn’t going to be a
potential Louisville showdown in
Madison
Square
Garden – it will be the
NCAA.
LOUISVILLE (16-8 overall and 4-7 Big
East)
Remaining games: at
Syracuse; vs. DePaul; at
West Virginia; vs.
Marquette; at
Connecticut.
NCAA RPI (as of Feb. 13):
64.
WHY THEY ARE IN THIS PREDICIMENT: Heavy
personnel losses – most notably, Francisco Garcia, Ellis Myles, Larry
O’Bannon – weren’t compensated for. Preseason injuries slowed the
development of Juan Palacios and David Padgett, and an in-season ankle
injury to Taquan Dean has limited
his effectiveness. And Rick Pitino’s
freshman class wasn’t nearly as ready for immediate and consistent contributions
as many expected it would be.
HOW DIRE ARE THE STRAITS? They are
extremely dire. There are no wins against teams that could be easily projected
into the NCAA tourney field right now. And the non-conference schedule, overall,
was weak. Even winning four of the final five regular season games – and that
seems beyond the capabilities of this team – might not put the Cardinals
squarely into at-large land.
NCAA or NIT? NYC, here they
come.
MARYLAND (15-9 overall and 5-6
ACC)
Remaining games: vs. Georgia Tech; at
Florida
State and North Carolina; vs.
Miami; at
Virginia.
NCAA RPI (as of Feb. 13):
42.
WHY THEY ARE IN THIS PREDICIMENT: One
of the team’s two best scorers (Chris McCray) became ineligible at the semester break. There is no “true” point
guard on the roster, leaving D.J. Strawberry to learn the position on the fly. Most of their recruits have
turned into “good” but not “exceptional” (all-ACC caliber) players. The loss at
Clemson at Tuesday night wasn’t a crusher but, being the fifth defeat in six
games, it was borderline so.
HOW DIRE ARE THE STRAITS? There have
been some close calls (against Gonzaga and George Washington and, relatively
speaking, Duke) but just one victory (over
Boston
College, on Dec. 11, at home) over an
NCAA tourney-bound opponent. A loss at home to Georgia Tech Saturday would be a crusher in no uncertain
terms.
NCAA or NIT? NIT, barring a turnaround
of considerable magnitude.
SYRACUSE (17-8 overall and 5-6 Big
East)
Remaining games: vs.
Louisville and
West Virginia; at
Georgetown and DePaul; vs.
Villanova.
NCAA RPI (as of Feb. 13):
28.
WHY THEY ARE IN THIS PREDICIMENT: With
just one contributing senior, they are a year away from being, potentially, a
very good team. And that senior, Gerry McNamara (.342 from the field, including .315 on 3’s), hasn’t been nearly
the consistent perimeter scoring threat that has been needed this season. And
the zone defense hasn’t been nearly as difficult to solve for opponents as in
seasons past: Syracuse has allowed
80 or more points six times in the past 10 games.
HOW DIRE ARE THE STRAITS? There are no
victories against sure-fire NCAA teams but seven of the eight losses have come
to teams that are definitely tournament-bound. And that keeps the RPI at a solid
level right now. Three wins in the final five games (especially if two come
against West Virginia,
Georgetown or Villanova) should do
the trick.
NCAA or NIT? NCAA, by the slimmest of
margins, though – as in really slim
margins.
BOUNCING AROUND THE
COUNTRY:
*Memo to some in the media: Enough,
already, of trying to shape the Mike Davis/Indiana situation into some level of Shakespearean tragedy. His past
two Hoosiers’ clubs missed the NCAA Tournament and he was told that, in order to
return after this season, his team (apparently) had to get into the NCAA tourney
this time around. It must have become apparent to him that the chances of
getting into the tourney were becoming bleaker by the moment. Hence, Davis and
his IU bosses discussed a contract buyout. And that was that.
Davis
will resurface as the head coach at another Division I program and the Hoosiers
will hire his replacement – which, everyone seems to be in agreement with, will
be the current Iowa coach, and IU
alum, Steve Alford.
And life will go on for all
concerned.
*The news out of
Stillwater Friday confirmed the
worst fears of everyone who knows him or admires him from afar: Coach Eddie Sutton of
Oklahoma
State was charged with driving under
the influence of alcohol on Feb. 10 after tests revealed his blood-alcohol level
to be nearly three times the legal limit.
Wednesday Sutton announced he was
taking a leave of absence from the program while seeking treatment for what he
admitted was an “alcohol problem”.
It’s beyond sad to think that the
on-the-court career of one of our generation’s finest and most well respected
basketball coaches may have come to an end with that as the backdrop.
*California,
in dominating visiting Arizona
from start to finish Thursday night in
Berkeley, took
another step toward its first
conference championship since 1960 when, coached by Pete Newell, the Golden Bears failed in
their attempt for a second consecutive national title with a loss to Ohio State
in the championship game.
Sophomores Leon Powe (30 points and 10 rebounds
vs. the Wildcats) and DeVon Hardin
make up the most imposing pair of post players in the West. But another
significant reason why Coach Ben
Braun’s team is tied for the Pac 10 lead with UCLA is the much-improved play
of junior point guard Ayinde Ubaka.
He’ll likely be an all-conference selection in a couple of
weeks.
John R. Wooden Award Top 10 Ratings
(statistics through games of Feb. 16)
1. J.J. Redick (6-4, Sr.,
Duke)
He has scored fewer than 32 points
only five times in 13 games during 2006. How about a jump-shooting contest
between Redick and Chris Lofton of
Tennessee in an NCAA Sweet 16
showdown?
Statistics: 28.9 points, 2.0 rebounds,
2.6 assists, 1.4 steals per game (.508 FG%, .439 on 3’s)
2. Adam Morrison (6-8, Jr.,
Gonzaga)
Quick, now . . . how likely is it
that ABC would be televising Gonzaga’s game at Loyola Marymount Saturday if
Morrison wasn’t in a Bulldogs’ uniform? He has scored fewer than 30 points only
four times in 11 games during 2006.
Statistics: 28.8 points, 5.5 rebounds,
1.6 assists, 1.1 steals per game (.513 FG%, .445 on 3’s)
3. Shelden Williams (6-8, Sr.,
Duke)
He has blocked at least three shots
in 15 games, with an average of 5.5 over the past six contests. Check this out:
He blocked 17 shots in the Blue Devils’ two games with
Maryland.
Statistics: 18.4 points, 9.8 rebounds,
1.3 assists, 2.0 steals, 4.0 blocked shots per game (.587 FG%)
4. Rudy Gay (6-8, So.,
Connecticut)
He’s really starting to play well, at least
offensively. And he hasn’t come close to fully tapping that enormous pool of
potential he possesses.
Statistics: 16.1 points, 6.7 rebounds,
2.2 assists, 1.9 steals per game (.463 FG%)
5. Nick Fazekas (6-11, Jr.,
Nevada)
It’s become a two-player tussle for
second-team All-America honors at center. LaMarcus Aldridge
(Texas) is the
competition.
Statistics: 21.3 points, 9.7 rebounds,
2.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.6 blocks per game (.525 FG%)
6. Brandon Roy (6-5, Sr.,
Washington)
Mark the Feb. 26 date on your Games
to Watch Calendar. That’s when the two best players in the Pac 10 – Roy and Leon Powe of
California – will be on the same
playing surface in
Seattle.
Statistics: 19.3 points, 5.4 rebounds,
3.9 assists, 1.4 steals per game (.497 FG%, .406 on 3’s)
7. Chris Lofton (6-2, So.,
Tennessee)
How is this for “feeling it” – 23
of 33 on shots behind the arc over the past three games?
Statistics: 17.6 points, 3.6 rebounds,
1.9 assists, 2.1 steals per game (.494 FG%, .465 on 3’s)
8. Mike Gansey (6-4, Sr.,
West
Virginia)
He’ll need one of his better games
of the season Saturday in Morgantown
if the Mountaineers are going to hand the most talented team in the country
(AKA, “The University of Connecticut Huskies”) a second loss this
week.
Statistics: 17.8 points, 5.9 rebounds,
2.1 assists, 2.2 steals per game (.572 FG%, .444 on 3’s)
9. P.J. Tucker (6-5, Jr.,
Texas)
Teammate LaMarcus Aldridge made a strong move
over the past two games (42 points and 24 rebounds) but Tucker played well
enough to remain in the Top 10 at least another week.
Statistics: 16.6 points, 9.3 rebounds,
2.7 assists, 1.9 steals per game (.539 FG%)
10. Randy Foye (6-3, Sr.,
Villanova)
The jump shots better start
falling, consistently, soon or he could be replaced here – maybe by teammate and
classmate Allan
Ray.
Statistics: 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.1
assists, 1.4 steals per game (.415 FG%, .373 on 3’s)
Others: LaMarcus Aldridge (Texas), Greg Brunner (Iowa),
Rodney Carney (Memphis), Aaron Gray (Pittsburgh), Tyler Hansbrough (North
Carolina), Darrel Mitchell (LSU), Leon Powe (California), Craig Smith (Boston College), Steven Smith (LaSalle) and Alando Tucker (Wisconsin).
Inducted into the USBWA Hall of
Fame last April, Frank Burlison is Scout.com’s national basketball expert and is
also a columnist for the Long Beach (Calif.) Press-Telegram. He can be reached at
frank.burlison@presstelegram.com. Read more of Burlison’s pieces at
www.FrankHoops.com